After studying the offsite industry for many years and speaking with countless people, I’ve come to some conclusions about the future. It should come as no surprise that they have to do with technology.
I’ve concluded that automation and robotics will do to the old-guard offsite factories what a certain asteroid did to the dinosaurs. It will kill them off en masse, leaving behind a landscape where more adaptable entities can evolve and thrive.
The reality is that most old-guard factories aren’t in a position to adapt, even if they want to. Implementing robotics and automation in a factory requires a huge financial investment as well as at least 20,000 sq. ft. of additional floor space. Established companies can’t afford that and will continue producing homes the old way until they can no longer compete.
The new species of factory that promises to take the old guard’s place will be built from the ground up with systems that make them able to produce homes and buildings faster and for less cost. The first crop of these new competitors includes names that are familiar to readers of this magazine, names like Autovol, Fading West and Rise Modular.
But while these factories were built around automation and limited robotics from the start, they represent just one evolutionary step. The next crop of competitors, which are still on the virtual drawing board, will see almost total automation, will use robotics for a majority of their production line, will incorporate AI into the mix and will cost $100-250M apiece to build.
They will be equipped with cutting-edge technologies such as 3D printing, laser cutting and robotic welding, which will allow for the precise and efficient fabrication of building components.
Skilled production line workers will be replaced with automated equipment. Procedures that are currently human-oriented — such as drywall, MEP and restocking — will be eliminated. Building codes that were designed for human workers will be rewritten for automated production methods.
Advancements in the installation of wiring, plumbing and ventilation are already being developed, and those tasks will soon be done without human interaction. Eventually, new technologies will allow factories to operate 24/7.
Offsite construction factories of the future will also be more sustainable. They will use renewable energy sources and recycled materials, and will be engineered to meet the highest standards of energy efficiency.
These above technologies will help offsite construction to finally realize its full potential: the ability to manufacture high-quality, sustainable buildings at a fraction of the cost and time needed by traditional construction methods.
But while the change from the old guard to the future is already underway, some of those old factories will cling to life until the last possible breath. That time may come sooner than some people think. In my opinion, we will probably see the last old-guard factory close its doors in ten years.
The end of what we currently do, and the start of the new, will be noted as the birth of a new industry. It will be known for its standardization, continuous production lines and affordable costs.
